To the volume reduction port corn into the inventory consumption period.

in accordance with past practice, into the second half of the year, the northeast grass-roots grain source bottom, the main market supply from farmers to traders, port-to-volume gradually shrinking, and into the inventory consumption period, corn prices by traders holding food costs and psychological expectations supported by the main trend of rising. This year the market structure has undergone a big change, port purchase and sale pace and price trend will also follow the law of the past? Analysis as follows:w6Y, the current port inventory structure analysisw6Yas of May 31, China Corn Network statistics the northern port corn stocks total 3.635 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons, an increase of 1.03 million tons, but compared with last week,120,000 tons, has shown a downward trend. Although the current inventory is still at a high level, but from a structural point of view, there is a big difference from previous years, in a variety of reasons under the joint impact of the current high inventory also has a certain degree of rationality.w6Yinventory structure is different from previous years. North Port's current 3.63 million tons of corn stocks, futures grain and reserve grain about 1 million tons, and then remove some feed plant has signed a good contract grain, the late available for circulation of the amount of trade grain in about 2 million tons. Based on the current capacity of Guangdong Port to consume more than 40,000 tons of corn per day, this part of the trade grain is only used by feed plants around Guangdong for 2 months. In addition, due to the small number of traders involved in the market this year, the current North port more than 2 million tons of corn stocks with a strong concentration, by several major traders in the hands of this change in the structure of grain is very easy to cause late food prices rise.high inventoryw6Yis not simply due to demand. Since the new listing in 12/13 years, affected by the high eras of the balance of Chen grain inventory and weak trend of grain prices and other factors, as the main source of grain flow to the port, the total amount of corn stocks has always maintained a high level, after the Spring Festival into the normal more than 3 million tons, analysis, mainly caused by the change in the purchase and sale structure, first, since the new listing, Chen grain inventory is high, hindering the circulation of new grain to the market; Northeast corn import volume fell; third, the new price is weak, traders operating heavy losses last year, in this year's appearance looks "sufficient supply" of the case dare not enter the market, the port and storage become the main flow of food sources; Six is the reserve corn in Hong Kong inventory is higher. Comprehensive above several considerations, the current high port inventory is also reasonable, its impact on food prices should not be overstated.w6Y, supply structure changesthe second half of the port arrivals show tightw6Yafter the end of spring farming in previous years, northeast farmers completed the last round of surplus grain release, the second half of the supply capacity decreased significantly, port arrivals reduced and into the inventory consumption period. Although this year's market structure and previous years there is a big difference, but through the analysis of surplus grain and southern demand, it is expected that after June the pace of port purchase and sale will still follow the previous law, and to the volume or less than the same period last year, mainly due to the second half of the grain supply will be from farmers to traders, and this year due to a large number of corn by the grain storage, traders generally low inventory state, the latter supply of port capacity weakened.w6Y 1 : Arrivals from the four ports in the north w6Y w6Y 2 : Changes in inventories in the northern ports w6Y w6Y the average daily volume of the four northern ports in March-April this year was about 7-90,000 tons, and then decreased into May To 5-6 million tons, or in this month the Northeast farmers have a round of spring farming after-sale grain small peak, it can be seen that the production of grass-roots corn surplus is shrinking, and from the grain quality, the current high-quality grain main production area liaoning, Jilin province surplus corn mold phenomenon, traders reflect this year's mold rate is higher than in the past few years, The main reason for the increase in mold is the slow pace of corn sales in Northeast China after the Spring Festival, coupled with the 3-4 degrees lower than usual temperature in March-April, after the summer, the temperature soared rapidly, the difficulty of corn storage under the rapid turn of the year increased, farmers at the rate of corn mold increased. After entering the middle of May, the mold rate of the incoming corn in the northern port increased compared with the previous period, jinzhou port to port corn mold rate is more than 4%-7%, can be controlled within 2% of the corn very little. Due to the change in the quality of grain of origin, it is expected that in the second half of the year in the volume of the reduction, the supply of good grain will be reduced accordingly. w6Y three, the recovery of demand will accelerate the port inventory consumption w6Y Figure 4 : Guangdong port cargo situation compared to w6Y w6Y into the second half of the year, the northern port arrivals showed a decline, and Guangdong port in the absence of wheat replacement and imported corn supply, the volume of travel will be significantly higher than last year. In March-May of 12 years, the average daily moving volume of Guangdong Port in 30,000 tons, the average daily moving volume of Guangdong Port in the same period this year is more than 40,000 tons, April 27-May 4 high is to reach the rate of 50,000 tons of daily shipments, the second half of Guangdong region is expected to maintain high demand for northeast corn, in addition, after the increase in railway freight, the southern coastal feed plant increased the port shipmentvolume. The emergence of these two phenomena will accelerate the consumption of inventory in the late northern ports. w6Y the Ministry of Agriculture announced that the number of pigs in April was 446.69 million, an increase of 0.70% month-on-month, down 1.4% YoY, and the number of sows in the stock was 50.13 million, down 0.40% month-on-month, an increase of 2.2% YoY. The data can be seen, although experienced a sharp decline in the price of meat in the early period, but the pig storage column is still at a high level, can breed sow sow column volume is significantly higher than the same period last year, the later storage column base is larger. Pork prices are picking up, bird flu outbreaks are fading, and the aquaculture industry is gradually recovering, so the future demand for corn in the aquaculture industry is still rigid. w6Y 4, the end of the pre-storage acquisition do not change the port supply tension w6Y the extended acquisition led to the May corn prices stop falling rebound, has now entered the end of the month, the acquisition work is coming to an end, some traders worry that the withdrawal of grain storage will lead to increased food liquidity, as the main flow of the port will suffer impact? According to the analysis of the current corn price and surplus situation of the origin, the withdrawal of the pro-storage will not change the situation of supply tension in the northern port later. w6Y this year in the Northeast grain storage has been the main acquisition of the main acquisition, mainly due to the early Northeast corn market price is lower than the protection price of the reserve and farmers in the grain source phase oversupply. Since the listing of new grain in 12/13 years, due to the high inventory of Chen grain balance, low-cost high-quality corn in North China to seize the southern market, frequent snowy winter weather and other factors, farmers sold grain rhythm was disrupted, in the absence of the acquisition of the main body, grain prices continued to run weak, lower than the protection price of the near storage, triggering a large amount of northeast corn into the reserves. Years after, the weather warmed, and at this time farmers still have a large number of grain sources for sale, early factors led to the effective sale of grain time is compressed, in the short term farmers concentrated on the release of the hands of grain storage, impact grain prices fell, in the case of oversupply of grain sources, the open storage acquisition of bottom grain prices, to absorb corn into the warehouse. In mid-March, the Northeast Pro-Storage in the origin of open acquisition, and open the acquisition standards, 45 and other corn can also be deposited, northeast grain accelerated into the reserves. May pro-storage deferred acquisition to boost market confidence, coupled with the decline of the avian flu epidemic, the southern feed plant began to actively prepare the warehouse, the northeast deep processing also do the final sprint of replenishment, in this one and a half months time, the market purchase and sale pace accelerated, the early backlog of grain sales progress quickly released, farmers selling grain progress significantly improved, the grass-roots grain source significantly reduced. w6Y in the case of reduced grain sources, northeast corn prices stopped falling rebound, at present, Liaoning, Jilin two water 14.5% natural dry corn farmers sell at 2160-2200 yuan / ton, if you include labor and short-haul costs to the grain bank, has been higher than the protection price, therefore, the advantage of the acquisition has been reduced. In addition, in mid-April, the average storage volume in the northeast weekly about 3 million tons, into May, with the reduction of grain sources and the rise in grain prices, the difficulty of storage increased, the weekly storage volume of less than 500,000 tons, the speed slowed down significantly, thus, in the case of limited surplus and rising grain prices, the strength of the reserve acquisition policy is weakening. It is expected that after the end of May, the supply of origin tight situation has formed, supply tension will not change. w6Y Five, future port supply and demand situation analysis w6Y Figure 5: The volume of northern ports to the united the volume of Guangdong ports to w6Y w6Y the current northern port to volume has shown a downward trend, while the southern aquaculture industry consumption is recovering, the future demand for northeast corn has increased steadily. After June last year, the number of daily gathering port in the north of the four ports in the area of about 2-4 million tons, combined with the current northeast corn surplus and grain storage structure, the second half of this year port to the volume will be flat or less than the same period last year, and affected by the high mildew of the production of corn, the quality of the later arrival source will also be reduced. As of May 31, the total amount of 30.83 million tons of northeast near storage, accounting for about 40% of the total corn production in the northeast, traders inventory compared with the past few years at a lower level, inventory numbers than the same period last year reduced by about 13-15 million tons, this part of the less trade grain has a highly concentrated characteristics, about 50% of the inventory is held by several major trading enterprises, if the later market wind changes, easy to trigger food prices. From the consumption point of view, in the case of reduced imported corn and wheat replacement reduction, the late southern port demand for northeast corn showed rigidity, coupled with the railway rise after the coastal sales area feed plant in the port increase in shipments, will also accelerate the later port inventory consumption speed. In summary, in the case of reduced supply and stable demand, the second half of the northern port will enter the inventory consumption period, corn prices are poised to rise. (China corn network original) w6Y in accordance with past practice, into the second half of the year, the Northeast grass-roots grain source bottom, the main market supply from farmers to traders, port-to-volume gradually shrinking, and into the inventory consumption period, corn prices by traders holding food costs and psychological expectations to support the main trend of the rise. This year the market structure has undergone a big change, port purchase and sale pace and price trend will also follow the law of the past? Analysis as follows: w6Y , the current port inventory structure analysis w6Y as of May 31, China Corn Network statistics the northern port corn stocks total 3.635 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons, an increase of 1.03 million tons, but compared with last week,120,000 tons, has shown a downward trend. Although the current inventory is still at a high level, but from a structural point of view, there is a big difference from previous years, in a variety of reasons under the joint impact of the current high inventory also has a certain degree of rationality. w6Y inventory structure is different from previous years. North Port's current 3.63 million tons of corn stocks, futures grain and reserve grain about 1 million tons, and then remove some feed plant has signed a good contract grain, the late available for circulation of the amount of trade grain in about 2 million tons. Based on the current capacity of Guangdong Port to consume more than 40,000 tons of corn per day, this part of the trade grain is only used by feed plants around Guangdong for 2 months. In addition, due to the small number of traders involved in the market this year, the current North port more than 2 million tons of corn stocks with a strong concentration, by several major traders in the hands of this change in the structure of grain is very easy to cause late food prices rise. high inventory w6Y is not simply due to demand. Since the new listing in 12/13 years, affected by the high eras of the balance of Chen grain inventory and weak trend of grain prices and other factors, as the main source of grain flow to the port, the total amount of corn stocks has always maintained a high level, after the Spring Festival into the normal more than 3 million tons, analysis, mainly caused by the change in the purchase and sale structure, first, since the new listing, Chen grain inventory is high, hindering the circulation of new grain to the market; Northeast corn import volume fell; third, the new price is weak, traders operating heavy losses last year, in this year's appearance looks "sufficient supply" of the case dare not enter the market, the port and storage become the main flow of food sources; Six is the reserve corn in Hong Kong inventory is higher. Comprehensive above several considerations, the current high port inventory is also reasonable, its impact on food prices should not be overstated. w6Y II, the supply structure changes the second half of the port arrivals show tight w6Y after the end of spring farming in previous years, northeast farmers completed the last round of surplus grain release, the second half of the supply capacity decreased significantly, port arrivals reduced and went forward.