Tobacco Control: China must curb smoking. In the next two decades, smoking-related cancer deaths will increase by 50%

Smoking causes a variety of cancers, as well as diseases of the respiratory system and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular systems
.
According to WHO statistics, smoking causes about 7 million deaths every year

In China, the number of smokers has exceeded 300 million, and it is the world's largest producer and consumer of cigarettes, consuming 40% of the world's tobacco
.
Among people over 15 years old, about 26% smoke, which shows that tobacco control is imperative in China

On November 1, 2021, Xu Ningzhi from the Cancer Hospital of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Jiang Jingmei from Peking Union Medical College and other researchers published an article entitled " Smoking-related cancer death among men and women in an " in the BMJ sub-Journal " Tobacco Control ".
ageing society (China 2020-2040): a population-based modelling study " research paper
.

The study shows that the number of deaths from smoking-related cancers in China will increase by about 50% in the next two decades, and stricter tobacco control is essential for China to curb the rising trend of cancer deaths
.

Early experience in other countries shows that the peak of deaths related to smoking usually occurs decades later
.
For example, in the United States, smoking rates for men peaked in 1955 and for women in 1965, but the peak of lung cancer deaths appeared about 40 years later, in 1990 for men and 2000 for women

Researchers warn that the smoking epidemic in China is three to forty years later than in the United States, so the peak of lung cancer deaths has not yet arrived
.

In China, in 2016, the country formulated the "Healthy China 2030" national plan, with the goal of reducing the overall smoking rate to 20% by 2030
.

In this study, the researchers used the United Nations World Population Outlook, the China Death Surveillance Database, the National Adult Tobacco Survey, and the largest national smoking and all causes of death survey database so far, to build on the possible processes of smoking-related deaths in the next 20 years.
Mode analysis
.

Between 2002 and 2018, the smoking prevalence of Chinese men dropped from 57.
4% to 50.
5%, and women's smoking rate dropped from 2.
6% to 2.
1%
.
If smoking rates continue to decline at the same rate, by 2040, the smoking rates for men and women will be 41.

However, if the aging population is taken into account, research analysis predicts that from 2020 to 2040, smoking-related cancer death rates will increase by 44% among men, 53% among women, and an additional 860 deaths within 20 years.
There are 10,000 people, and men account for 94%
.

Smoking-related cancer mortality trends for men and women in 2020-2040

According to this model, if the overall smoking rate is reduced to 20% in 2030, and this trend continues until 2040, 1.
4 million deaths will be avoided
.

But researchers say that the slow decline in smoking rates is not enough to achieve the goal
.
Studies have shown that from 2000 to 2016, China's rate dropped from 30% to 26%, which is far from the speed required by the target

In addition, even if this goal is achieved, the upward trend in the number of excess deaths will only be slightly reversed
.

Researchers say that nearly a quarter of smokers start smoking before they become adults, and it is necessary to completely prevent adolescents from smoking
.

The four main causes of deaths from smoking-related cancers in men and women in 2040

According to this model, the number of cancer deaths in China is expected to increase.
China alone accounts for 30% of the global cancer deaths.
The future cancer situation will be even more worrying, because China is also rapidly moving towards an aging society
.

The researchers emphasized several limitations.
Due to the lack of previous smoking rates for specific ages, the impact of smoking on ex-smokers cannot be fully considered, and second-hand smoke is not considered, which may mean that the number of future smoking-related deaths is underestimated
.

There are countless researches on smoking and health.
We all know that smoking has many hazards, including lung health, cardiovascular disease, cancer, osteoporosis, intelligence and many other hazards
.
Smoking also has a great adverse effect on the reproductive system.

Therefore, for the health of yourself and your family, don't smoke cigarettes

Original source:

Ning Li, Peng Wu, Zixing Wang, et al.