Top 10 conjectures of China's biomedicine in 2018: booming market of bio similar drugs

Source: China business intelligence network January 11, 2018 China business intelligence network news: at present, the market share of biological products in China is mainly occupied by biological drugs (including monoclonal antibody drugs, interferon drugs, recombinant interleukin drugs, etc.), vaccines, blood products, etc.; in addition to vaccines, the market share of biological drugs and blood products is mainly controlled by overseas multinational pharmaceutical enterprises Compared with the relatively mature biomedical industry in developed countries, China's biomedical industry is still in the early stage of development, with rapid growth rate, but the overall scale is still small At present, China's biological products are still dominated by low-end generic drugs, and independent research and development of innovative drugs are seriously lacking To a large extent, this situation is caused by the small scale and low industrial concentration of biomedical enterprises in China In 2018, China's top ten biopharmaceutical conjectures are as follows: the market of biological analogues is booming, and the monoclonal antibody analogues are still in the market Policies to encourage and regulate the research and development of biological similar drugs will accelerate the survival of the fittest products currently under research After the products of leading enterprises such as Anke biology and Fosun medicine are listed, they can improve the penetration rate through price advantage or entering the medical insurance catalogue, and quickly realize import substitution Conjecture 2: two child policy + license opening + consumption upgrading, giving birth to 100 billion IVF market The import substitution trend of assisted reproductive drugs is speeding up, the penetration rate of the third generation of assisted reproductive technology PGs / PGD is increasing, Private assisted reproductive center is expected to become a rising star, and the whole industrial chain contains huge investment opportunities Conjecture 3: forensic DNA testing -- the market prototype has been established, and the future outbreak is expected Forensic DNA testing will continue to expand to DNA database building and genetic identification, which is expected to become the next blue ocean, in which forensic DNA testing technology is the core Guess four: MAH pilot deepening, the rise of domestic CMO business After the MAH system released the demand for drug production outsourcing, the domestic demand for drug R & D and production has become an additional big cake for CMO companies Those CMO companies with API and preparation production lines that can provide one-stop services have become the main beneficiaries According to extensive industry research, we believe that 2018 will be the first year of MAH contract intensive landing, and CMO's domestic business will rise soon Conjecture 5: the scale advantage of IVD channel business is emerging, and the pressure is transmitted to the downstream We judge that after the widespread implementation of the new procurement contract in 2018, the advantageous channel enterprises can really transmit the price reduction pressure to the manufacturing end, so as to improve their gross profit margin However, due to the inability to effectively transfer the pressure of price reduction, the living environment of the channel business without scale will become worse and the industry shuffle will be accelerated In 2018, there will be more market space for the high-quality channel business with scale Conjecture 6: the implementation of new medical insurance is large Judging from the implementation of the new health insurance in each province, nearly half of the provinces started to implement it at the end of this year, and the rest of the provinces are expected to implement it by the first quarter of next year In addition, the establishment of dynamic medical insurance negotiation mechanism has opened a path for innovative drugs, especially domestic new drugs, to be included in the scope of reimbursement On the one hand, it enables patients to use new drugs in a timely manner On the other hand, for pharmaceutical enterprises, it usually allows new drugs to be released in advance, with greater certainty and peak sales Conjecture 7: drug review and approval is accelerated After the self-examination of clinical data and the expansion of personnel to solve some of the backlog problems, policies such as the opening up of clinical trial institutions and the 60 day time limit for clinical review have been introduced in succession, solving the bottleneck of clinical resources and the long delay of review time After joining the ICH, CFDA will further optimize the system, simplify the process and connect with developed countries Conjecture 8: DTP pharmacies are blooming everywhere, and the outflow of prescriptions is further intensified With the implementation of the policy of controlling the proportion of drugs and zero addition of drugs in the hospital, the outflow of prescriptions has become the general trend New special drugs and high price slow disease drugs flow from the hospital to DTP pharmacy In the future, the DTP drugstores of large and medium-sized chain drugstores will make great progress, and a considerable number of DTP drugstores will flow to the DTP drugstores opened by social chain drugstores Conjecture 9: implementation of preferential treatment policy for consistency evaluation varieties On the eve of the approval of the first batch of consistency evaluation varieties, we expect that the supporting national support policy rate will be implemented in 2018, and make provisions on the specific support content and details We are optimistic that the first batch of varieties passing the consistency evaluation will enhance their competitive advantage, ease the pressure of price reduction and significantly increase their market share Guess 10: large varieties of generic drugs accelerate import substitution We believe that in 2018, the import substitution speed of China's generic drugs will be further accelerated, and the generic drugs enterprises with strong grassroots sales capacity, large import substitution space of key varieties and leading progress in consistency evaluation will be further accelerated.