U.S. beans usher in red July early July soybean meal oil stage rebound

Introduction:P4Min the early hours of June 29, the U.SDepartment of Agriculture released the latest June U.Scrop planting intention report, data show that the 2013 U.Ssoybean planting area of 77.7 million acres, up 600,000 acres from the March report, while the author tracked since May domestic port soybean stocks continued to increase, South American soybean arrivalvolume acceleratedP4M
Taken together, the 12/13 South American soybean production speculation ended, into the inventory from the production area to the sales area transfer and sales area digestion cycle;P4M
1June 29 USDA Report Review
P4Min the early hours of June 29, USDA issued two new reports, one is the latest U.SAgricultural Planting Intentions Report, and the other is the U.SAgricultural Products Quarter inventory report as of June 1, the former Increased U.Ssoybean planting area, the pressure on the long-term U.Ssoybeans fell, the latter shows that the quarterly U.S soybean inventory fell to a nine-year low, supporting the recent U.S soybean resistance rebound, as of July 1 U.S soybean 7/1spread spread again widened to 312 points P4M
(1) Increase the u.S soybean planting area, the market focus on the follow-up yield and harvest area level
P4M June U.S Department of Agriculture planting intention report shows that the 2013 U.S soybean planting area of 77.7 million acres, up from the March estimate of 7710, up from the 2012 U.S soybean harvest area of nearly 1 million acres, higher than the nearly five-year planting area of nearly 76.66 million acres P4M
Figure 1: U.S soybean planting area in the last six years
P4M P4M U.S soybean good rate: Despite the 2013 U.S soybean seeding progress delayed, but as of June 24, the U.S soybean growth rate of 65%, more than the same period last year 53% nearly 12 percentage points, showing that the delay did not affect the current u.S soybean growth P4M
Figure 2: The good rate of U.S beans P4M P4M Due to the increase in the u.S soybean planting area estimate in June is in the context of the delay in planting U.S beans and U.S corn, the market is generally expected in August will also be a revaluation of the sowing area to speculate on the final harvest area P4M
(2) U.S soybean quarter inventory is at a 9-year low, supporting near-month prices P4M Figure 3: U.S soybean quarter inventory P4M P4M 2012 due to south american and North American soybean production, coupled with the 2013 South American soybean shipment shipping slowing pace, 2013 In the first half of the 13th century, the global market mainly digested North American soybeans, U.S soybeans in 2012/13 year end carry-over warehouse position fell sharply, as of June 1, 2013 U.S soybean quarter inventory data show that the current quarter inventory of 11.832 million tons, the lowest level in nearly nine years P4M
Second, 2013 North American weather on the impact of U.S soybean yield study P4M into June 9, 2013, the market concerns gradually shifted to the northern hemisphere oil production growth progress and future weather speculation on the yield impact level P4M
As of May 2013, NOAA's latest ONI index tracking showed that MAM's ONI data was -0.2, up 0.2 from the previous period, starting from the previous -0.6 data, indicating that the current meteorological model shows that La Nina is tending to weaken, but has not yet entered the El Ni?o cycle P4M
From our historical statistical analysis of the 15-year data from 1997-2013, both Soybean sayama in South America and the United States have a positive correlation with the ONI index, and when the ONI index shows a transition cycle from La Nina to El Nino, U.S soybean production is also in a recovery growth cycle Therefore, we think that lido is limited in the third quarter of 2013 weather speculation in the northern hemisphere, with a neutral negative impact on The U.S beans P4M
Figure 4: South American soybean production and weather model map P4M P4M Figure 5: South American soybean production and weather model map P4M P4M 3, China port soybean stocks began to pick up, the import cost of long-term U.S soybeans decreased P4M (1), Chinese port soybean stocks rebounded to 4.94 million tons P44 million tons M port imported soybean stocks as of June 27, 2013 were 4.94 million tons, down 6.48 percent from 5.26 million tons at the beginning of January 2013, but an increase of 30.69 percent from 3.78 million tons in the same period in May 2013, indicating that China's soybean port inventories began to pick up in June According to the current monitoring data of the State Grain and Oil Information Center, the amount of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong in the first quarter of 2013 was 11.52 million tons, and the amount of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong in the second quarter was expected to be 16.78 million tons, an increase of nearly 5.26 million tons from the first quarter of the previous year, mainly due to the South American soybean landing port P4M U.S beans ushered in the red July soybean meal oil stage rebound
U.S beans ushered in the red July soybean meal fat stage rebound (2) 1 / 2 1 2 Next page Guide: P4M June 2 In the early hours of the 9th, the U.S Department of Agriculture released its latest June U.S crop planting intention report, which showed that the 2013 U.S soybean planting area was 77.7 million acres, up 600,000 acres from the March report, while the number of soybeanstocks at domestic ports has increased continuously since May, while Soybean arrivals in South America accelerated P4M
Taken together, the 12/13 South American soybean production speculation ended, into the inventory from the production area to the sales area transfer and sales area digestion cycle; P4M
1 June 29 USDA Report Review
P4M in the early hours of June 29, USDA issued two new reports, one is the latest U.S Agricultural Planting Intentions Report, and the other is the U.S Agricultural Products Quarter inventory report as of June 1, the former Increased U.S soybean planting area, the pressure on the long-term U.S soybeans fell, the latter shows that the quarterly U.S soybean inventory fell to a nine-year low, supporting the recent U.S soybean resistance rebound, as of July 1 U.S soybean 7/1spread spread again widened to 312 points P4M
(1) Increase the u.S soybean planting area, the market focus on the follow-up yield and harvest area level
P4M June U.S Department of Agriculture planting intention report shows that the 2013 U.S soybean planting area of 77.7 million acres, up from the March estimate of 7710, up from the 2012 U.S soybean harvest area of nearly 1 million acres, higher than the nearly five-year planting area of nearly 76.66 million acres P4M
Figure 1: U.S soybean planting area in the last six years
P4M P4M U.S soybean good rate: Despite the 2013 U.S soybean seeding progress delayed, but as of June 24, the U.S soybean growth rate of 65%, more than the same period last year 53% nearly 12 percentage points, showing that the delay did not affect the current u.S soybean growth P4M
Figure 2: The good rate of U.S beans P4M P4M Due to the increase in the u.S soybean planting area estimate in June is in the context of the delay in planting U.S beans and U.S corn, the market is generally expected in August will also be a revaluation of the sowing area to speculate on the final harvest area P4M
(2) U.S soybean quarter inventory is at a 9-year low, supporting near-month prices P4M Figure 3: U.S soybean quarter inventory P4M P4M 2012 due to south american and North American soybean production, coupled with the 2013 South American soybean shipment shipping slowing pace, 2013 In the first half of the 13th century, the global market mainly digested North American soybeans, U.S soybeans in 2012/13 year end carry-over warehouse position fell sharply, as of June 1, 2013 U.S soybean quarter inventory data show that the current quarter inventory of 11.832 million tons, the lowest level in nearly nine years P4M
Second, 2013 North American weather on the impact of U.S soybean yield study P4M into June 9, 2013, the market concerns gradually shifted to the northern hemisphere oil production growth progress and future weather speculation on the yield impact level P4M
As of May 2013, NOAA's latest ONI index tracking showed that MAM's ONI data was -0.2, up 0.2 from the previous period, starting from the previous -0.6 data, indicating that the current meteorological model shows that La Nina is tending to weaken, but has not yet entered the El Ni?o cycle P4M
From our historical statistical analysis of the 15-year data from 1997-2013, both Soybean sayama in South America and the United States have a positive correlation with the ONI index, and when the ONI index shows a transition cycle from La Nina to El Nino, U.S soybean production is also in a recovery growth cycle Therefore, we think that lido is limited in the third quarter of 2013 weather speculation in the northern hemisphere, with a neutral negative impact on The U.S beans P4M
Figure 4: South American soybean production and weather model map P4M P4M Figure 5: South American soybean production and weather model map P4M P4M 3, China port soybean stocks began to pick up, the import cost of long-term U.S soybeans decreased P4M (1), Chinese port soybean stocks rebounded to 4.94 million tons P44 million tons M port imported soybean stocks as of June 27, 2013 were 4.94 million tons, down 6.48 percent from 5.26 million tons at the beginning of January 2013, but an increase of 30.69 percent from 3.78 million tons in the same period in May 2013, indicating that China's soybean port inventories began to pick up in June According to the current monitoring data of the State Grain and Oil Information Center, the amount of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong in the first quarter of 2013 was 11.52 million tons, and the amount of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong in the second quarter was expected to be 16.78 million tons, an increase of nearly 5.26 million tons from the first quarter of the previous year, mainly due to the South American soybean landing port P4M