U.S. weather worries reignite corn prices

Monday, July 8, Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose to a near eight-week high, with July corn futures, which are due to expire on Friday, at $6.95, their highest since May 14, and new December corn futures up nearly 2 percentAnalysis shows that the key factor supporting the high futures price is the weather forecast showing limited rainfall in parts of Missouri, southern Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas over the next two weeks, putting pressure on newly sown cropsRCp
It seems that as if American growers were just barely completing the planting and preparing for a big sigh of relief with 97.379 million acres of corn planting since 1936, the weather will become dry and rain-less worrying and once again hovering over the main corn fields in the MidwestRCp
U.Sgrowers are believed to be still worried about the extreme drought that began last June and lasted until August, when U.Scorn production was only 10.78 billion bushels, the lowest since 2007, and despite last year's planting of 97.155 million acres, the second-largest planting area after this year's level, the results proved that large areas do not mean high yields and that the key long-term weather is decisiveRCp
So even though this year's corn cultivation area is at its highest level on record, the market is not easing its guard as we know that the key factors that affect final corn production have yet to emergeThe limited rainfall forecast for parts of the Midwest over the next two weeks alone has raised alarm bells across the corn market, supporting futures prices to an eight-week high, which shows the importance of weather factors affecting the corn marketRCp
However, from the current situation, the author believes that the market this year's U.Scorn growth encounteradverseed weather worries too early, and think that this year's U.SMidwest serious drought probability is lowRCp
Because from the current crop growth progress, the recent weather conditions are not enough to have a decisive effect on the final yield of later corn The U.S Corn Growth Rate was 68 percent in the week ended July 7, compared with 67 percent the week before and 40 percent in the same period last year, according to the U.S Department of Agriculture's weekly crop growth report At the same time, the U.S corn-toe rate was 6 percent, compared with 3 percent the week before, compared with 46 percent in the same period last year, and 20 percent on a five-year average RCp
RCp from the good rate of corn, although slow progress, but the overall good rate is gradually good, and from the same period in recent years, this year's corn growth is still relatively moderate level If the current good rate is not enough to illustrate the problem, we can also look at the timing of the key growth of corn and the time of arid weather RCp
As we all know, the planting time of corn in the United States this year is significantly behind that of previous years, mainly due to the rainy and cold weather in the spring The planting period is delayed, and the entire life and harvesting period after the corn is sown are delayed accordingly We know that the key growth that determines the final yield of corn usually refers to the period from extraction of spitting silk to grouting In the case of corn with a 120-day growth cycle in Iowa, the key growth of U.S corn typically lasts from about the 70th day after planting to the 105th day, lasting about a month So if u.S corn is sown in mid-April, the corresponding extraction to grouting period will be from mid-to-late June to late July or early August of the year And last year's severe drought in the Midwest last year coincided with the critical long-term period of corn, so it's no surprise that corn fell sharply last year RCp
Let's figure out when this year's key growth of U.S corn will be This year's corn planting time has been delayed by about 20 days compared to last year, so it is estimated that this year's corn-pumping-to-grouting period will run from mid-July to late August The probability of drought during this period is relatively low Because from the modern history of the United States, the probability of drought in the Midwest is not high Statistics show that the United States has experienced 117 moderate to severe june droughts since 1896, covering the entire Midwest or parts of the country about 17 times For more than 20 years, the more severe droughts occurred in 1988 and 2012 The 1988 drought was a continuation and worsening of the 1987 drought, which lasted mostly from April 1988 to September of that year The 2012 drought lasted from June to August of that year RCp
Now immediately into mid-July, so in light of the historical time of the past drought and the progress of corn growth in the corresponding period, this year's new season corn in the United States in the key long-term extreme drought is not likely RCp
In short, as corn production continues for a long time, the weather speculation will continue to occur, based on this year's old inventory tension and future long-term weather conditions still exist a certain degree of uncertainty, so corn futures prices are expected to continue to show a volatile situation (China Corn Network Original) RCp Monday, July 8, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures rose to a near eight-week high, Friday will expire in near-July corn futures hit $6.95, the highest since May 14, the new December corn futures also rose nearly 2 percent Analysis shows that the key factor supporting the high futures price is the weather forecast showing limited rainfall in parts of Missouri, southern Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas over the next two weeks, putting pressure on newly sown crops RCp
It seems that as if American growers were just barely completing the planting and preparing for a big sigh of relief with 97.379 million acres of corn planting since 1936, the weather will become dry and rain-less worrying and once again hovering over the main corn fields in the Midwest RCp
U.S growers are believed to be still worried about the extreme drought that began last June and lasted until August, when U.S corn production was only 10.78 billion bushels, the lowest since 2007, and despite last year's planting of 97.155 million acres, the second-largest planting area after this year's level, the results proved that large areas do not mean high yields and that the key long-term weather is decisive RCp
So even though this year's corn cultivation area is at its highest level on record, the market is not easing its guard as we know that the key factors that affect final corn production have yet to emerge The limited rainfall forecast for parts of the Midwest over the next two weeks alone has raised alarm bells across the corn market, supporting futures prices to an eight-week high, which shows the importance of weather factors affecting the corn market RCp
However, from the current situation, the author believes that the market this year's U.S corn growth encounteradverseed weather worries too early, and think that this year's U.S Midwest serious drought probability is low RCp
Because from the current crop growth progress, the recent weather conditions are not enough to have a decisive effect on the final yield of later corn The U.S Corn Growth Rate was 68 percent in the week ended July 7, compared with 67 percent the week before and 40 percent in the same period last year, according to the U.S Department of Agriculture's weekly crop growth report At the same time, the U.S corn-toe rate was 6 percent, compared with 3 percent the week before, compared with 46 percent in the same period last year, and 20 percent on a five-year average RCp
RCp from the good rate of corn, although slow progress, but the overall good rate is gradually good, and from the same period in recent years, this year's corn growth is still relatively moderate level If the current good rate is not enough to illustrate the problem, we can also look at the timing of the key growth of corn and the time of arid weather RCp
As we all know, the planting time of corn in the United States this year is significantly behind that of previous years, mainly due to the rainy and cold weather in the spring The planting period is delayed, and the entire life and harvesting period after the corn is sown are delayed accordingly We know that the key growth that determines the final yield of corn usually refers to the period from extraction of spitting silk to grouting In the case of corn with a 120-day growth cycle in Iowa, the key growth of U.S corn typically lasts from about the 70th day after planting to the 105th day, lasting about a month So if u.S corn is sown in mid-April, the corresponding extraction to grouting period will be from mid-to-late June to late July or early August of the year And last year's severe drought in the Midwest last year coincided with the critical long-term period of corn, so it's no surprise that corn fell sharply last year RCp
Let's figure out when this year's key growth of U.S corn will be This year's corn planting time has been delayed by about 20 days compared to last year, so it is estimated that this year's corn-pumping-to-grouting period will run from mid-July to late August The probability of drought during this period is relatively low Because from the modern history of the United States, the probability of drought in the Midwest is not high Statistics show that the United States has experienced 117 moderate to severe june droughts since 1896, covering the entire Midwest or parts of the country about 17 times For more than 20 years, the more severe droughts occurred in 1988 and 2012 The 1988 drought was a continuation and worsening of the 1987 drought, which lasted mostly from April 1988 to September of that year The 2012 drought lasted from June to August of that year RCp
Now immediately into mid-July, so in light of the historical time of the past drought and the progress of corn growth in the corresponding period, this year's new season corn in the United States in the key long-term extreme drought is not likely RCp
In short, as corn production continues for a long time, the weather speculation will continue to occur, based on this year's old inventory tension and future long-term weather conditions still exist a certain degree of uncertainty, so corn futures prices are expected to continue to show a volatile situation (Original China Corn Network) RCp (Zhang Lei)