Fighting the "epidemic": five mountains that the pharmaceutical industry needs to overcome in 2020

First of all, conclusion: at the company level, under the current situation of survival of the fittest, what local pharmaceutical companies need to do is still to accelerate: strengthen the integration and iteration speed online and offline, strengthen the fit between the selected sub track and the core competitiveness of pharmaceutical companies, strengthen the integration and landing between technology M & A and self innovation, strengthen the cultivation of compliance thinking and the awareness of cash as the king At the macro level, in 2020, the pharmaceutical industry needs to reach at least five mountains to achieve the desired development The first mountain: the acceleration of the survival of the fittest in medicine and the impending epidemic of the track adjustment will accelerate the survival of the fittest in the big health industry of medicine, especially the elimination of all kinds of non universal therapeutic generic drugs that originally relied on system and local protection and sustained high cost promotion to achieve growth This process will enable a group of people with higher moat, better cash reserve, better credit and asset quality to realize the revaluation of value in the current "innovation" track and be more recognized by the industry The enterprises with integrated operation mode and product cluster will get a good opportunity to accelerate development and upgrade due to their strong "immunity" And those with better internal governance, especially the gradual implantation of online business and synchronous replacement with offline business, have higher anti risk ability However, it is worth noting that if the opportunities in the crisis are not systematically grasped, a new wave of waves will inevitably backfire, sliding from the upper echelon to the next echelon, or even accelerating the passive elimination The second mountain: the acceleration of integration and integration of medical industry The rapid spread of the epidemic, on the one hand, is the very strong concealment and portability of the coronavirus, on the other hand, is the global mobility brought by the flow of people during the holidays The trend of destruction and decay makes everyone face a prevention without a specific scene, which makes the economic scene all limited to online operations, and all confined space scenes are limited From the perspective of industrial development, all intelligent online operation modes should be implemented in 5-10 years, so this fashion is not ready for immediate arrival This big test makes all the processes and links of the medical industry face a big problem: it is not only a comprehensive big test, but also a medical big test, or a medical big test It can be expected that the impact on the industry will be seen at least in the next 3-6 months, from the abrupt economic operation and "lock up the market" as well as the "split self-treatment" and layer upon layer blockade, to the system unlocking to the normal operation of the recovery of the economy This shock therapy urges medical practitioners to comprehensively adjust and do a good job in rapid feedback and iteration This kind of systematic risk makes all kinds of enterprises, no matter the top pharmaceutical enterprises, innovative pharmaceutical enterprises or large-scale generic pharmaceutical enterprises, suffer from the problems caused by systematic restrictions such as insufficient consumption capacity, scarce supply of raw materials and insufficient transportation capacity Even the enterprises that manufacture, treat and integrate raw materials and preparations still face the problems of subdivision protection, vaccine and targeting In addition to the local improvement of sexual medical products, the overall impact of the overall cliff slide However, in the medical industry, the traditional medical service field, which is dominated by the following inquiry services, has suffered heavy losses If all kinds of remedial and incentive measures taken by the pharmaceutical industry after the country can not be effectively promoted and implemented, if the country's measures such as deleveraging before 2019 and the tension of fiscal adjustment policies can't be well connected in 2020, then from the perspective of the pharmaceutical industry, the negative growth of the decline in the main revenue will be a high probability event in 2020 To this end, let's look at the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics from 2005 to 2018 From 2017 to 2018, under the new policy, there was an expansion of the loss side and a decline in the volume In 2019, the new deal is not optimistic, and 2020 will face a more serious situation Enterprise economic indicators of China's pharmaceutical industry from 2005 to 2018 unit: RMB, 100 million (source: collated in this paper, data from the National Bureau of Statistics) the third mountain: industry transformation and quality improvement, technology M & A integration will accelerate From the perspective of pharmaceutical and medical industry, the great health market industry with mixed advantages and disadvantages has not yet realized the stable landing mechanism systematically After the completion of the system combing of three medical linkage, the drug administration law issued at the end of 2019 opened the prelude of the drug licensing system, including the medical device licensing system, which is a catalyst for merger and reorganization In terms of track selection, the state has officially set the focus from generic drugs to innovative drugs In terms of solving system and mechanism innovation and operation capacity, the last obstacle to M & A (mainly technology M & A) has been completely implemented! In December 2019, before the outbreak, the National Health Insurance Bureau, which provided preventive injection in advance for the next stage, promoted the level of trustworthy morality to the mechanism of rewards and punishments In addition, in December 2019 before the outbreak, the drug administration law was launched simultaneously On the one hand, it regulated the drug vigilance mode and supervision under the drug holder system; on the other hand, it strengthened the production supervision of the existing products of the existing pharmaceutical enterprises, which essentially strengthened the whole process supervision and traceability mechanism of drugs from two paths This will be a more strict channel supervision after consistency evaluation, avoiding the problems of strict manufacturing links and lack of circulation links or insufficient supervision, and promoting the production and circulation trustworthy moral level to the reward and punishment mechanism system The "increased" cost caused by the lack of regulatory return is an important expenditure of many pharmaceutical companies in the post epidemic crisis stage May be "the last straw to crush the camel"! This means that: through the external mechanism of technological innovation, pharmaceutical enterprises can realize the rapid iteration, transformation and upgrading of resources through mutual relationship and interaction between external resource elements of pharmaceutical enterprises Through the mechanism of technological innovation, pharmaceutical enterprises will accelerate the mutual iteration and integration of internal independent innovation and external technology M & A of pharmaceutical enterprises, and accelerate the landing of technological achievements The choice of external technology merger and acquisition of pharmaceutical enterprises reflects the technological progress path and institutional tendency of a pharmaceutical enterprise or even industry, determines the important role of promoting technological innovation of pharmaceutical enterprises in economic growth, and defines the potential growth space that pharmaceutical enterprises can achieve through technological innovation itself On the one hand, it can digest and absorb the patent technology spillover of the target pharmaceutical enterprise itself; on the other hand, it can digest and absorb the technology spillover gathered in the region or country where the target pharmaceutical enterprise is located It can effectively promote the transfer efficiency of high-end patent technology from developed countries or regions to the main and combined enterprises In terms of technology spillover between the two sides of the pharmaceutical enterprises after the merger and acquisition, the main and parallel pharmaceutical enterprises can realize barrier free integration and docking in terms of talents, technology, products, tacit knowledge and other aspects, and realize technology spillover effect and reverse technology spillover effect in the upstream and downstream of the target pharmaceutical enterprises, so as to systematically drive technological progress, and at the same time enhance the main and parallel pharmaceutical enterprises There is a technical gap between the late catch-up The path of technology M & A to realize technology spillover effect is shown in the figure below Source: collation of this paper The wave of technology M & A of pharmaceutical enterprises has been confirmed by many parties, but it also means that technology M & A is based on acquiring technology, has no core competitiveness, is limited by consistency evaluation, belongs to low-level repetitive generic drugs, belongs to the limited and entry into the country's centralized procurement volume catalog of all kinds of products, and will accelerate the clearance! At the same time, with the acceleration of technology M & A, many companies that have not made full and forward-looking choices and are unfortunately backward under the king of cash will continue to fall into the low profit trap and accelerate to enter the target of integrated M & A The fourth big mountain: the competition and opportunities brought by transnational pharmaceutical enterprises are flourishing However, due to the pressure of various incentive policies and measures on economic downward pressure and deleveraging, as well as the evaluation mechanism system and track adjustment of pharmaceutical enterprises, in the history of pharmaceutical enterprise M & A, the mode is not based on technology acquisition This leads to innovation driven products that have been newly established for 2-5 years and have not yet achieved market-oriented landing systematically The policy dividend has not yet been absorbed and implemented The economic downturn and various constraints of the generic track and the deficit of medical insurance have led to a precipitous decline in the absorptive capacity of the terminal medical institutions under the epidemic situation The various policies that were originally heavily implemented in 2018-2019 to promote the innovation of Chinese local pharmaceutical enterprises cannot directly support Chinese local pharmaceutical enterprises At the same time, DRGs that need to be promoted in 2020 under the three medical linkage mode will be started and tried out from the second quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter, and finally gradually introduced into terminal hospitals It can be imagined that the negative effects brought about by the mode of drug-based care are prominent, but the problems of institutionalization for decades can not be solved in a single day The reasonable compensation mechanism of public medical institutions has not been realized by the small-scale compensation of drug service fees after the elimination of drug-based care The public medical institutions' public welfare medical attributes and the irreplaceable nature of public medical institutions in front of the epidemic also make The DRGs model, which is not originally a cost control model, appears to be unique If the system is implemented in 2020, it will make drugs subject to a large range of classification discrimination In particular, the problem of offline depression of medical service industry caused by the epidemic in 2020 makes many offline medical service terminals lack sufficient cash flow, and they are faced with endogenous reform of strengthening resource integration and rapid service response effect within medical institutions This period of internal endogenous reform has increased the severe test of cash flow faced by many pharmaceutical enterprises, and made pharmaceutical enterprises more It's hard to move In front of innovation, five years ago, the total R & D investment of Pharmaceutical Enterprises above Designated Size in 2016 was less than 55 billion yuan, and the R & D investment rate accounted for less than 2% of sales revenue Although the chemical pharmaceutical industry is higher than the overall average of the whole pharmaceutical industry, it is also less than 4% If the data of China's high-quality main board listed chemical pharmaceutical enterprises are compared, the R & D investment rate as a proportion of sales revenue is still far behind the investment level of developed countries in Europe and the United States Over the same period, the proportion of R & D investment to sales in developed countries in Europe and the United States is over 10%, which is the driving force for the sustained development of pharmaceutical enterprises From the perspective of China's pharmaceutical industry as a whole, the R & D investment level of China's pharmaceutical industry and sub industries is far behind that of developed countries in Europe and the United States, especially the huge investment in biomedical industry in the United States In the same way, according to the production after five years, in 2020, all kinds of multinational pharmaceutical enterprises, represented by the United States, have formed multinational pharmaceutical enterprises with rich product clusters, rich R & D channels, rapid technology iterations, rapid industrialization of pharmaceutical investment, and strong standardized operation The "localization" ability of responding to and solving sensitive problems is constantly improving, and the Chinese pharmaceutical industry is also growing In the face of "life first, economy later" caused by the devastating epidemic situation across the country, we are faced with a stage of "foreign monks are good at reading sutras" The fifth mountain: the compliance firewall of pharmaceutical enterprises, breaking through the fog and moving the real case, the joint inspection of 77 pharmaceutical enterprises by the Ministry of Finance and other departments in 2019 is still vivid, and the results of penetration / modularization / integration on the heavy hand mode of sales cost are already eye-catching and shocking according to the feedback of insiders And 2020