The old dividends are exhausted and squeezed out. What is the difficulty for China's pharmaceutical industry in 2019?

There are many signs that the pharmaceutical industry in 2020 may really be more difficult than ever before It is not only the beginning of a symbolic new decade, the year when the old dividends are exhausted, but also the year when the pharmaceutical industry changes from quantity to quality in recent years Admitting difficulties is not a sign of frustration, but also a sign of courage to make painful but correct decisions At an internal meeting, the big boss of the company said: "colleagues, 2020 is a very challenging year, and we may encounter unprecedented difficulties At the end of the speech, everyone laughed and the serious atmosphere suddenly became very happy Because at the end of each year, the boss admonishes the management team like this Although there are many stumbles every year, so far it's been a good year Is there a time when the "wolf is coming"? People who have practiced in the medical circle for more than 20 years are not scared, so everyone can't help laughing However, there are many signs that the pharmaceutical industry in 2020 may really be more difficult than ever before It is not only the beginning of a symbolic new decade, the year when the old dividends are exhausted, but also the year when the pharmaceutical industry changes from quantity to quality in recent years Admitting difficulties is not a sign of frustration, but also a sign of courage to make painful but correct decisions I think the difficulties of the pharmaceutical industry next year are mainly reflected in these four aspects One is the continuous loss of stock business No matter for production or circulation enterprises The biggest challenge is the nationwide expansion and normalization of the volume purchase A round of over consistent varieties' price drop is predictable The third round of national volume purchase policy seems to be more hopeful of a lower price and a more fragmented market It's even more frightening to think about the pilot notice of volume purchase of non consistent and even self paid varieties in places like Wuhan, Jiangxi and Hebei Because of the huge health care burden reduction and patient advocacy effect brought by the price reduction, the government's full implementation and high-profile propaganda are enough to dispel the remaining slowdown illusion of some medical people Rational drug use policy, key monitoring drug use catalogue and standardization of traditional Chinese medicine prescription departments will further reduce the business of auxiliary drug stock In fact, the cost control measures such as clinical diagnosis and treatment path, medical insurance payment standard and DRGs will make hospitals and doctors' willingness to prescribe all prescription drugs drop No matter winning the bid or losing the bid, a large part of the stock business of the pharmaceutical industry will evaporate from then on, and the meager gross profit of the pharmaceutical business and retail pharmacy will continue to decline The two ticket system of equipment and high-value consumables and the approximate rate of purchasing with quantity will also be implemented in 2020, the living space of a large number of gray dealers will be squeezed, its gray marketing cost will be difficult to go, and the rolling profits brought by high-value consumables to enterprises will disappear by more than half Stock business is a cash cow product group accumulated in the pharmaceutical industry for many years After the investment period, it was the harvest season for safety Now, where will the old business go? What's new? Second, it is not easy for new varieties to grow The continuous loss of mature varieties naturally put expectations on innovative drugs At present, the state's support for innovative drugs in R & D, approval and access is unprecedented, but this does not mean that innovative drugs can make up for the loss of stock business The first is the blowout of Chinese innovative drugs There are dozens or dozens of hot targets or biological analogues under development Considering the high success rate of new drugs in China, innovative drugs that rush to the market will soon fall into mutual trampling: at the beginning of the market, there will be national negotiations, even competitive negotiations The innovative hepatitis C drugs, hypoglycemic drugs and tumor targeting drugs with ultra-low price access almost block the growth space of the latecomers, unless the newcomers can be significantly better than this round of medical insurance candidates in clinical data or business ability, although it is also very difficult to appear In exchange for medical insurance admittance qualification with an average decrease of 60%, it is necessary to quickly cover the national market in order to obtain sufficient profits within the patent period Not to mention that most innovative drug companies have neither business ability nor financial ability to cover the whole country Even if they spend a lot of money to hire hundreds of thousands of sales teams, they will find it more difficult to cultivate the market than in the previous ten years: either you have to use special drugs, or after the abolition of "drug based medicine", the hospital has a serious lack of motivation to enter new drugs Doctors think that old drugs are cheap and familiar, and many special drugs Also need to do professional doctor concept education and accompanying diagnosis matching, these are a lot of marketing investment, neither small companies can do, nor large companies can easily bear In recent three years, the varieties of medical insurance, in addition to trastuzumab, bevacizumab, leizhumab and other clinical urgent needs, tumor drugs with good clinical concept education have brought huge profits to manufacturers, and many varieties of medical insurance have entered the platform period after a year of rapid growth Although there are several new tumor drugs with amazing sales volume before the medical insurance, most of them come from the super indication drugs without enough clinical evidence After a large number of new drugs with various targets come into the market in 2020-2021, the tumor drug market that we are optimistic about now will also quickly turn into the red sea The market payment ability or concept education of other rheumatic immunity, neurology or rare disease drugs will be more backward Relevant new drugs have not become money printing machines in recent years Third, the new platform expected by the pharmaceutical industry did not appear In the past few years, the industry has great expectations for the outflow of prescriptions after "zero price difference of hospital drugs" However, in practice in recent years, the scale of prescription outflow has expanded compared with that in previous years, but it is still limited to new special drugs at its own expense, neither in large quantities nor in huge returns to participants Although the outflow of prescription is the general trend, it is still a long process for public hospitals to give up all kinds of indirect income of drugs completely Only when the medical income accounts for 80-90% of the hospital's income can the large-scale outflow of drugs occur Even if this day is not the era when pharmaceutical companies can do things freely, the payers will continue to control the drug sales channel outside the hospital, and those out of the hospital pharmacies that do not create incremental value can not earn money only through the transaction link There are also medical e-commerce, Internet hospitals, and new models and platforms that have been expected by big health, hospital M & A, and doctor group that have not made significant contributions to pharmaceutical companies, either for it is too early, or for the wrong drugs, let alone for various innovations that are still in the wrong trial period Fourth, the pharmaceutical industry did not come up with the courage and methods of internal reform Our marketing is still in the past We rely too much on the ground forces and customer relationship Non-conforming sales are still common There are so-called evidence chain manufacturers making superficial financial and tax compliance Many pharmaceutical companies just hope to relax or have loopholes in their pharmaceutical policies, and are keen to pursue various popular concepts or models They still want to pay less or no price Can quickly and safely through the transformation period, the pharmaceutical industry has not yet appeared a more obvious phenomenon of simultaneous closure and transformation, indicating that the pharmaceutical industry is not enough pain Even if an enterprise wants to make a big marketing model change, it will also find that a large number of old employees cannot keep up with the pace and are difficult to be eliminated It is not only hard to find pioneering talents, but also hard to survive when they come We all know that we can't go to the new world on the old road, but the old road is still full of people waiting In 2020, the world's economy will face the challenges of trade protection and economic stagflation, and China's pharmaceutical industry can't stay out of the way Although the industry is difficult, the good thing is that it is difficult for everyone 2020 is the watershed of the pharmaceutical industry and the year of great differentiation of pharmaceutical enterprises Pharmaceutical enterprises that can solve 1-2 common problems of the above industries may get tickets to the future, because the surviving enterprises are entitled to the cake after China's pharmaceutical market continues to grow.