When will the domestic corn market return

Introduction: since the second half of this year, the price of corn in China's corn market has fallen, so when can the later corn market fall and stabilize? We have to recall the past, review and analyze the factors that lead to the current low price Only by finding the root cause of the decline can we predict the future: 9d7 In the second half of the year, the main corn producing areas in China generally fell in favor of rain, and the growth of corn was significantly improved Due to the reduction of planting area and severe drought climate, the psychological expectation of the fall in output this autumn was frustrated On the contrary, the expectation of the output being equal or increased compared with that of the previous year was enhanced, and the price of corn rose rapidly from the earlier stage Remember that the price of Jilin in the producing area rose to 1090-1120 yuan / ton at that time The highest price is even 1050 yuan / ton At this time, the Central Plains corn has been exhausted, and the purchasing direction of Southern grain enterprises has to turn to the northern corn The water content of northern corn has also decreased after the early drying and drying, and the price has also increased day by day The prices of Southern Fujian, Jiangxi and other places have reached 1330 yuan / ton, 1240 yuan / ton At the grain and oil information conference, China's grain administration department Officials also said that the current trend of corn price is good In a short period of time, the state will not take macro measures to control the corn market Large scale control will wait until the price in the production area is close to 1200 yuan / ton and the price in the sales area is close to 1400 yuan / ton However, the reality has not developed like this, and the time interval is not long According to the provisions of the State Food Department, in order to make room for the new corn production and meet the challenges brought by China 's accession to the WTO, the food departments at all levels still take effective measures to reduce the pressure on the market brought by the inventory In order to effectively reduce the inventory and reduce the sales psychology of the storage and collection enterprises, the food department of Jilin province ordered that it must Nearly 2 million tons of inventory must be sold before October 1, and the outbound subsidy for enterprises has been increased The move not only increased the pressure of the storage enterprises, but also effectively mobilized the enthusiasm of the enterprises to sell According to the statistical data of Jilin grain information network at that time, shortly after the announcement was issued, the volume of transactions increased rapidly, from the daily volume of 1000 tons in the past to the daily volume of nearly 10000 tons, or even tens of thousands of tons The market supply increased significantly, and the old grains were continuously sold in the production areas At the same time, in Hebei, Zhengzhou, Dalian and other places, auction activities of aged grain have been carried out successively The low price has won most of the market share, and the quantity is relatively large While seizing the market space, it has severely suppressed the market price, and has not given the corn market a respite After the previous auction, the corn market is digesting it, and when breeding new upward conditions, new A round of selling activities of old grain was held again In addition to the quantity of corn sold in large quantities in the production area, the market supply situation is self-evident No matter what kind of commodity, the price trend is often closely related to the amount of supply When the market supply is tight, the price rises, on the contrary, the price is depressed With the promotion of production areas and the auction of stale grains in various places, the new corn in South China also appeared quietly The market situation suddenly gathered and the purchasing direction of purchasers shifted again In addition, the Central Plains corn dropped out of the protection price range, and the price went with the market In addition, with the increase of production, the purchasing price fell again and again, and the increase of supply quantity hit the current corn price heavily, thus the rice price was depressed We are in the decline stage The price of corn will rise again only when the above-mentioned inhibition factors are digested in the market and the strength of the promotion factors is recovered again From my personal point of view, I think the price will start to show signs in March May next year, mainly based on the following factors: As in previous years, after the new corn was listed in North China and Huang Huai area, the export capacity of corn in North China decreased significantly Most of the domestic regions went to North China and Huang Huai area to buy grain, with a large number of self-sale and export shipments The amount of corn available in real estate can only be maintained to March April of the second year Back to now, the price of corn is still low, and with the successive listing of corn in North China, the price of corn is still low The decline will remain, and the sharp decline of prices will be inevitable We will feel the strong bearish atmosphere of the market again Because of this atmosphere, feed production and deep processing enterprises will also slow down the purchasing speed of corn, reduce the stock of raw materials, and strengthen the atmosphere of "holding money for the market" But at the same time, we will also intangible touch Feeling their warmth, first of all, a large number of new corn in the north and the South put a heavy pressure on the price, which is negative The price decline makes the price advantage of old grain lost It is not significant to hold a large-scale auction again To say the least, if you want to please the purchasers, the price must be lowered again Despite its disadvantages, the next selling will be weakened by the next selling With the passage of time and the gradual decline of prices, the re selling of old grain is not enough, which is not good Secondly, the buyer's lack of confidence in the later corn market and low enthusiasm for purchasing create strong conditions for the reversal of price supply and demand Once again, after March April next year, the corn supply capacity in North China and Huanghuai region will be significantly weakened The transportation quantity will also be basically stopped, and local grain enterprises will start to purchase corn in Northeast China again As a result, corn prices in North China and Huang Huai Region will rise first in China Moreover, in South China, as a result of the large amount of corn in stock in South China, there will be no shortage of supply in a short period of time, and the price will not rise rapidly due to the recovery of prices in North China and Huang Huai regions The corn supply in South China will mainly come to its place When the quantity of corn shipped abroad decreases and the supply becomes tight, the purchase of corn in Northeast China has basically ended, and the later work will be in the air Sun drying and precipitation are the focus of the work, and the capacity of external transportation is weak Therefore, Guannan and other places will face the shortage of supply, and the market price will respond quickly In the process of precipitation in Northeast China, corn prices in North China, South China, Huanghuai and other places will continue to strengthen At this time, it will also be nearly April Driven by the gradual stability of corn prices in the sales area, the ex warehouse price of corn in Northeast China will also be promoted And then it will rise day by day, and the mentality of storage enterprises to be reluctant to sell and the active rush of customers in the South will emerge again, pushing the price up, so that the real meaning of the domestic corn price will decline and stabilize
Based on the above, it is not difficult to see that the decline and recovery period of corn price will occur from April to May next year Different from the previous years, China will face the pressure of entering WTO on corn market The price recovery may be a little later However, as a big corn production country, China's corn output can fully meet domestic demand and has strong independence The impact on corn market at the early stage of entering WTO will not be significantly increased Therefore, it can be speculated boldly that the domestic corn price scenery will reappear before the end of May next year 9d7 (author:) to feed Weibo to: