When will the market continue to fall after the new production of dried ginger in 2021, when will it rebound?

After the new dried ginger is produced in 2021, the market continues to decline, and the low price has attracted the attention of some businesses.
This year, will the market for this variety bottom out or continue to decline? In this issue, the big data platform of the pharmaceutical industry of Tiandi Yuntu makes an analysis of the market of this variety based on the production and sales data
.
1.
Movement of dried ginger market and origin Bozhou market: There are many dried ginger in the market, and merchants mainly buy and sell in small batches.
The overall supply of goods moves slowly, and the market continues to decline slightly
.
At present, the price of powder ginger in the market is 16-19 yuan (kg price, the same below), the price of powder ginger selection is 18-22 yuan, and the price of pharmaceutical factory goods is 12-13 yuan
.
Anguo Market: The dried ginger in the market is abundant, and the merchants are less willing to purchase
.
The market price of Yunnan noodles is 15-16 yuan, and the price of the whole piece is 16-18 yuan.
It is very difficult for the market to rebound
.
Yulin Market: Recently, the sales of seasoning varieties in the market are hot, but dried ginger is in sharp contrast
.
The popularity of this variety is sluggish, the movement is slow, the market inventory is sufficient, and the price continues to decline slightly
.
The market price of sulfur-free monolithic tablets is around 17 yuan, and the price of sieved large tablets is 20 yuan, which is difficult to benefit in the short term
.
According to Yunnan Luoping dried ginger dealers, there are not many merchants looking for goods in the production area recently, the local inventory is sufficient, the supply of goods in the production area is not moving fast, and the market price has declined slightly
.
Now the price of dried ginger in the origin is 14.
5 yuan, and the price of dried ginger slices is 15.
5 yuan
.
2.
Dried ginger market decline chart: Dried ginger market price chart from 2017 to 2022 Yuan fell to the current 12.
5 yuan, and dried ginger slices fell from 22 yuan to the current 13 yuan
.
The oversupply is the direct reason for the decline of dried ginger
.
From 2016 to 2017, although the planting area has been reduced, the output and inventory are still large
.
Moreover, many producing areas are habitually planted, and the reduction is not obvious
.
In 2018, the rectification of environmental protection caused the calm ginger market to be turbulent again.
The cost price of dried ginger is around 11-12 yuan, and it is unlikely to continue to decline
.
At the beginning of 2019, the price of dried ginger was between 12-13 yuan.
The market rebounded in April of that year, and rose to about 17 yuan in July.
The demand slowed down from August to October, and the market fell slightly.
However, after the new production at the end of 2019, The volume of new goods processed in the production area decreased significantly, and the market immediately rebounded to 20-21 yuan
.
The dried ginger market should have been corrected in 2020, but due to the outbreak, ginger can not only play a preventive role, but also play a role in the treatment of new coronary pneumonia.
In June 2020, many merchants actively purchased and stored, built a large number of warehouses, Jiang pushed to an all-time high price of about 33 yuan
.
In the second half of 2020, China's epidemic control is unique, and ginger seed dispatching activities have also increased, production, planting and management have not been affected, which continues to stimulate planting, laying the groundwork for a collapse in 2021
.
3.
Increase the output of dried ginger, powder ginger is used for both medicine and food.
Taking the small yellow ginger in Banqiao Town, Qujing, Yunnan as an example, new production is produced in September every year, and the supply of goods mainly flows to the production of pickled ginger and vegetable ginger.
High-quality ginger seeds for planting around March
.
The processed dried ginger in the origin is mostly concentrated around November of the lunar calendar
.
Powder ginger is distributed all over the country, and the core production areas are mainly in Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Shandong
.
Among them, Yunnan is mainly concentrated in the area of ​​Qujing and Luoping, and there are also plantations in Wenshan, Dali and other places; Guizhou is mainly concentrated in Zunyi, Liupanshui, Anshun and other places; Guangxi is mainly concentrated in fields, agriculture and forestry; Shandong's main production of Chaijiang is mainly concentrated in Juxian area
.
In the past two years, the dried ginger market has been high, and the output will reach its peak in 2021
.
According to the statistics of the big data platform of the pharmaceutical industry in Tiandi Yuntu, the output of dried ginger in 2020 will be about 32,950 tons, and the output in 2021 will be about 39,736 tons.

.
4.
The demand for dried ginger is stable.
70% of domestic ginger is used fresh, 10% is used as dry ingredients, 5% is exported, and the rest is used as seed ginger or it may be lost, while the medicinal materials mostly use powdered ginger as dry ingredients.
Compared with fresh use, it belongs to the minority.
category
.
Dried ginger is a product for both medicinal and edible purposes.
In the edible market, powdered dried ginger is known for its powdery properties and delicious flavor.
It is an important member of the seasoning family.
The demand for dried ginger in the medicinal market is not much different from that in the edible market.
The demand is more than 30,000 tons
.
According to the statistics of the big data platform of the pharmaceutical industry in Tiandi Yuntu, the consumption of dried ginger will be around 34,000 tons in 2020
.
V.
Analysis of Main Demand Products and Enterprises In terms of demand for Chinese patent medicines, 7702 Chinese patent medicine varieties monitored by the platform were screened.
At present, 63 Chinese patent medicines contain dried ginger.
Qinglong mixture, Fenghanmao granules,
etc.
The top Chinese patent medicine companies in demand for dried ginger are Jiangxi Jimin Trusted Pharmaceutical Co.
, Ltd.
, Jilin Aodong Yanbian Pharmaceutical Co.
, Ltd.
, Hebei Longsui Pharmaceutical Co.
, Ltd.
,
etc.
VI.
Forecast of the market outlook 1.
The area of ​​powdered ginger caused by the introduction of Shandong Chaijiang in Yunnan has decreased in recent years.
Shandong No.
1 and No.
2 ginger have been cultivated in Yunnan, and the planting area of ​​small yellow ginger has been affected to a certain extent
.
Shandong ginger is big in size and heavy in water.
The per-mu yield of fresh goods can reach more than 10 tons.
The small yellow ginger is small, and the per-mu yield is only about 3 tons
.
2.
At present, farmers are basically unprofitable.
The planting cost of one mu of Yunnan powder ginger is around 4,000 yuan, and the current income per mu is around 5,000 yuan.
Although farmers do not calculate the cost of planting like big farmers or bases, they are different from planting.
Compared with other cash crops, the benefits of planting pink ginger are not very attractive, and the planting area is bound to decrease
.
3.
The processing cost of processing households has increased substantially.
The increased cost of processing households is mainly reflected in coal
.
Last year, my country's coal supply was tight, and coal prices rose from 700/ton to 800 yuan/ton in previous years to 1600/ton to 1800 yuan/ton
.
In addition, the global commodity prices have risen sharply, which has also led to a significant increase in processing costs for processors, and dried ginger will lose money after processing
.
4.
The price of dried ginger is mainly affected by the price of ginger.
Ginger is the main seasoning variety in China, and the annual output is between 780,000 tons and 800,000 tons, and the output of dried ginger only accounts for less than 5% of the total production.
Therefore, the price of domestic dried ginger is Mainly linked with the price of ginger
.
To sum up, dried ginger is a variety with relatively regular price fluctuations, and it often takes two years for the price to climb to a low price
.
In 2021, Yunnan, Shandong and other places will experience a dilemma in which plant expansion does not increase income, farmers lose money, and processors delay processing
.
As the market inventory continues to increase, the formation of the bottom still needs a process, and then the inventory is consumed, the seeds are reduced, and a new round of rises is welcome
.