Which new drugs can enter the billion dollar club?

Source: Pharmaceutical geography "2017-11-30 major new drug creation" is one of the 16 major science and technology projects determined and implemented in the outline of national medium and long term science and technology development plan (2006-2020) Its goal is to develop a batch of new drugs with independent intellectual property rights and market competitiveness, and form a new drug innovation capability and technical system to support the independent development of China's pharmaceutical industry By 2020, the level of new drug innovation in China will be significantly enhanced By the end of 2015, the central government had invested nearly 12.8 billion yuan, with nearly 20 billion yuan of supporting funds from all parties It devoted its efforts to support 1595 project projects of "major new drug creation" A number of Chinese original new drugs have emerged At present, 23 innovative drugs with special support of major new drug creation have been launched: in addition to vaccine products, there are 7 innovative drugs with annual sales of more than 100 million in 2016, including conbercept ophthalmic injection, iricoxib tablets, exetinib hydrochloride tablets, elamod tablets, apatinib mesylate tablets, levononazole sodium chloride injection and enalapril maleate folate tablets The total market size of seven innovative drugs is more than 2.2 billion yuan Can the market performance of new drugs in the first three years predict the ceiling of the product? Will it grow into a billion level variety? It can be seen from the figure below that except for exetinib, the sales growth rate of other six varieties has not exceeded 100% for two consecutive years On the other hand, the sales revenue of exetinib in the first year of listing, that is to say, in 2011 reached 60 million, the amount of sample hospitals was 15 million, and the amount of other six products in sample hospitals in the first year of listing was less than 10 million In the fifth year of listing, the sales volume of sample hospitals of arixib reached 15 million yuan It is estimated that the growth rate in 2017 will be around 60% The probability of arixib becoming a 1 billion yuan class product is not very high In the first year of the mysterious apatini's IPO, the sales of sample hospitals exceeded 60 million yuan, but the growth rate in 2016 was only 31%, and the growth rate in 2017 is expected to reach 91% Apatini has entered the "billion yuan club" with one foot, which depends on the market performance in 2018 For innovative drugs with precise efficacy and solid clinical data, the golden period of market sales is 3-5 years after the launch Once competitive products with better efficacy are launched, the market growth rate of the previous generation of drugs will probably stagnate For enterprises, curative effect is exactly a double-edged sword, which makes all competitions more transparent and direct The head-to-head PK determines that innovative drugs can't follow the market path of "gathering the sand into a tower" like some "magic drugs" in China The market development of innovative drugs needs more explosive power and higher accuracy.