Winter is coming, where will the domestic acetate industry go from here?

Under the influence of raw materials, exports and demand, domestic acetate prices are different, but overall in the winter off-season, how will the market go?
into November, with the decline in temperature in the north, domestic acetate ushered in the traditional off-season, terminal
paint
paint
and other demand levels have decreased to varying degrees, and the raw material surface also has downward expectations. However, the current domestic price trend of acetate is different, of which the price of ethyl acetate slightly increased, butyl acetate, mid-butyl esters, acetate and propylene esters are in decline.
First look at the raw material surface, 1, acetic acid market is mainly concerned about the supply and demand side, the current acetic acid manufacturers inventory is low, and is expected to be difficult to improve in the short term, so acetic acid prices although long-term short-term, but the short-term remain stable; 4, after the ether carbon four expectations are not good, short-term crude oil fell by a larger margin, the market for a while there is no obvious good appear, deep processing unit profit is meager, is expected to be stable next week, some areas still have a moderate decline possible.
supply surface of acetate, 1, ethyl acetate and butyl esters manufacturers started to work basically normal, butyl acetate in August after the start of construction fell to 30%, in September began to gradually upgrade. Ethyl acetate start-up situation is relatively stable, maintained at about 50%. 2, acetic acid butyl ester operating rate is low, in mid-October more device parking, due to the supply of raw materials manufacturers fault, some large manufacturers parking. As a result, the supply side is tight. But in early November the device will be restored one after another, the normal operation of Zhongtron, Liaoning Heidexin device is currently restarted.
Shipping situation: At present, Shandong butyl acetate and ethyl ester shipments will be sent to South China, october downstream 1600 tons of butyl esters arrived in South China market, in mid-to-late November will be 2000 tons and 1300 tons of butyl acetate arrived in South China market. In addition, in mid-November, 6000 tons of Shandong ethyl ester will arrive in the South China market. Therefore, the supply surface of ethyl acetate and butyl esters in Shandong region is low in the short term. Tensions in south China eased significantly in October.
Export market as a bright spot, the current domestic export volume is more, ethyl acetate East China export price of $690 / ton FOB, it is known that Thorpe, Jinjiang, Unhai and other manufacturers are a large number of exports, it is known that some manufacturers export volume of more than 10,000 tons, manufacturers inventory and spot limited, so in early November manufacturers have raised the price of 50 yuan / ton, individual manufacturers increased 100 yuan / ton. The export price of butyl acetate is US$770-780/tonne FOB in China, but the export situation of butyl ester is not as hot as that of ethyl ester. The export price of mid-butyl acetate is understood to be AT$640/tonne FOB Changshu, up US$60/tonne from the beginning of November. The export price of refined acetate is US$460/tonne FOB. Export prices of acetate are relatively high. As a result, the current export situation is relatively hot.
domestic demand situation, although the export market is relatively hot, but it is understood that the domestic sales situation is not hot, downstream procurement situation is more robust, most downstream on demand to buy. Northern weather cooling, paint market has been over the traditional peak season, the level of demand gradually decreased. The terminal mentality is more cautious.
in addition to the growing problem of haze, and winter transport and other issues will also have an impact.
Short-term ethyl esters still need to pay attention to the export situation, butyl acetate needs to pay attention to the rise of positive butanol, acetic acid butyl ester supply surface increased, the market impact is greater, the market supply surface of methyl acetate increased, the demand for acetate is falling, prices are also falling. Overall, into the winter off-season, the domestic acetate market will become more depressed, the future long-term prices will fall.