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Content Introduction Chinese Abstract: Objective: To explore the factors related to the length of time for the new coronavirus nucleic acid to become negative, and to establish a model to predict the probability of viral nucleic acid becoming negative.
Innovation: This study establishes a model to predict the probability of viral nucleic acid turning negative based on the factors that affect the length of time for non-severe new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) patients to turn negative, so as to estimate the length of isolation for non-severe COVID-19 patients.
Methods: This study adopted a multi-center retrospective research method, selecting 135 patients from four hospitals in Zhejiang Province as the training cohort and 102 patients from another hospital as the verification cohort.
In the training cohort, a multi-factor Cox regression model was used to identify important predictors related to the length of time the virus nucleic acid turned negative, and based on this, a nomogram was constructed to predict the virus turning negative on the 9, 13, 17 and 21 days.
Probability.
The verification cohort is used to verify the nomogram, and evaluate the performance of the nomogram through the C index, area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve.
Conclusion: It was found in the training cohort that the higher the baseline absolute lymphocyte count and the lymph mononuclear cell ratio, the shorter the time for the virus nucleic acid to turn negative; and the longer the baseline activated partial thrombin time, the longer the virus nucleic acid turns negative.
The C index of the nomogram in the training and validation cohorts are 0.
732 and 0.
703, respectively.
AUC shows a good degree of discrimination.
The calibration curve shows a good agreement between actual results and predictions.
This study identified three factors related to the length of time the virus nucleic acid turns negative, and constructed a nomogram to predict the probability of the virus nucleic acid turning negative, which helps to estimate the isolation time of each non-severe COVID-19 patient and control it Spread of the virus.
Keyword group: novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19); novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2); virus shedding (nucleic acid turns negative) time; nomogram Author: Shijin YUAN, Yong PAN, Yan XIA, Yan ZHANG, Jiangnan CHEN, Wei ZHENG, Xiaoping XU, Xinyou XIE, Jun ZHANG The citation format of this article: Shijin YUAN, Yong PAN, Yan XIA, Yan ZHANG, Jiangnan CHEN, Wei ZHENG, Xiaoping XU, Xinyou XIE, Jun ZHANG, 2021.
Development and validation of an individualized nomogram for early prediction of the duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding in COVID-19 patients with non-severe disease.
Journal of Zhejiang University-Science B (Biomedicine & Biotechnology), 22(4):318-329.
https://doi.
org/10.
1631/jzus.
B2000608 The essential guide of this article: Full text download link: This journal "Journal of Zhejiang University (English Edition) Series B: Biomedicine and Biotechnology", referred to as JZUS-B, is a comprehensive English monthly journal of biology.
JZUS-B has been indexed by SCI-E since 2008, with the latest impact factor of 2.
082, and has also been indexed by well-known platforms at home and abroad such as MEDLINE/PubMed, PMC, Scopus, BA, BIOSIS Previews, etc. The scope of articles accepted by JZUS-B covers life sciences, medicine, pharmacy, biochemistry, biotechnology and bioengineering, agronomy, ecological environment, and zoology and other related disciplines.
Article types include Review, Article, Perspective, Viewpoint, Editorial, Correspondence, etc.
The journal has always implemented a strict international peer review mechanism, with an average review period of 42 days and an average acceptance time of 53 days.
Articles will be in press online immediately after acceptance, and will generally be officially published within 2 months.
"Content-oriented, flexible format" is the characteristic of this journal.
JZUS-B welcomes outstanding scholars at home and abroad to contribute the latest scientific research results, controversial topics, review papers, and organize the publication of hot albums.
Journal Springer homepage: Online submission address: Contact us The English version of Zhejiang University News is a number of English academic journals The collection scope covers all directions of science, engineering, agriculture and medicine.
Welcome to contribute to our journal.
You can follow our public account zdxbywb for more information.
Innovation: This study establishes a model to predict the probability of viral nucleic acid turning negative based on the factors that affect the length of time for non-severe new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) patients to turn negative, so as to estimate the length of isolation for non-severe COVID-19 patients.
Methods: This study adopted a multi-center retrospective research method, selecting 135 patients from four hospitals in Zhejiang Province as the training cohort and 102 patients from another hospital as the verification cohort.
In the training cohort, a multi-factor Cox regression model was used to identify important predictors related to the length of time the virus nucleic acid turned negative, and based on this, a nomogram was constructed to predict the virus turning negative on the 9, 13, 17 and 21 days.
Probability.
The verification cohort is used to verify the nomogram, and evaluate the performance of the nomogram through the C index, area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve.
Conclusion: It was found in the training cohort that the higher the baseline absolute lymphocyte count and the lymph mononuclear cell ratio, the shorter the time for the virus nucleic acid to turn negative; and the longer the baseline activated partial thrombin time, the longer the virus nucleic acid turns negative.
The C index of the nomogram in the training and validation cohorts are 0.
732 and 0.
703, respectively.
AUC shows a good degree of discrimination.
The calibration curve shows a good agreement between actual results and predictions.
This study identified three factors related to the length of time the virus nucleic acid turns negative, and constructed a nomogram to predict the probability of the virus nucleic acid turning negative, which helps to estimate the isolation time of each non-severe COVID-19 patient and control it Spread of the virus.
Keyword group: novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19); novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2); virus shedding (nucleic acid turns negative) time; nomogram Author: Shijin YUAN, Yong PAN, Yan XIA, Yan ZHANG, Jiangnan CHEN, Wei ZHENG, Xiaoping XU, Xinyou XIE, Jun ZHANG The citation format of this article: Shijin YUAN, Yong PAN, Yan XIA, Yan ZHANG, Jiangnan CHEN, Wei ZHENG, Xiaoping XU, Xinyou XIE, Jun ZHANG, 2021.
Development and validation of an individualized nomogram for early prediction of the duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding in COVID-19 patients with non-severe disease.
Journal of Zhejiang University-Science B (Biomedicine & Biotechnology), 22(4):318-329.
https://doi.
org/10.
1631/jzus.
B2000608 The essential guide of this article: Full text download link: This journal "Journal of Zhejiang University (English Edition) Series B: Biomedicine and Biotechnology", referred to as JZUS-B, is a comprehensive English monthly journal of biology.
JZUS-B has been indexed by SCI-E since 2008, with the latest impact factor of 2.
082, and has also been indexed by well-known platforms at home and abroad such as MEDLINE/PubMed, PMC, Scopus, BA, BIOSIS Previews, etc. The scope of articles accepted by JZUS-B covers life sciences, medicine, pharmacy, biochemistry, biotechnology and bioengineering, agronomy, ecological environment, and zoology and other related disciplines.
Article types include Review, Article, Perspective, Viewpoint, Editorial, Correspondence, etc.
The journal has always implemented a strict international peer review mechanism, with an average review period of 42 days and an average acceptance time of 53 days.
Articles will be in press online immediately after acceptance, and will generally be officially published within 2 months.
"Content-oriented, flexible format" is the characteristic of this journal.
JZUS-B welcomes outstanding scholars at home and abroad to contribute the latest scientific research results, controversial topics, review papers, and organize the publication of hot albums.
Journal Springer homepage: Online submission address: Contact us The English version of Zhejiang University News is a number of English academic journals The collection scope covers all directions of science, engineering, agriculture and medicine.
Welcome to contribute to our journal.
You can follow our public account zdxbywb for more information.
