Blood: Predictive model of initial treatment in early CLL patients

Most patients with chronic lymphoblastic leukemia (CLL) are diagnosed at an early stage of the disease and treated under active monitoringThe individual course of early CLL patients is heterogeneous, and it is difficult to predict the probability of treatment at diagnosisthe goal of this study is to develop an international prognostic score (IPS-E) to predict the first treatment time (TTFT) for early asymptomatic diseases in CLL patientsthe study analyzed data from 4,933 patients with early CLL in 11 international queues to establish and validate prognostic scoresthree covariates are consistent lymiced with TTFT: the unmutated IGHV gene, the absolute number of lymphocytes, 15 x 109/l, and the significant lymph nodesIPS-E is the sum of the three covariates (1 out of 1 each) and separates patients with low risk (0 points), medium risk (1 point) and high risk (2-3), showing significantly different TTFTnine queues rated by the Binet system and one by Rai system-rated queue sverified the accuracy of the scoreThe c index of the training series is 0.74 and the validation series is 0.70The cumulative risk of five-year starting therapy in low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk patients was 8.4%, 28.4% and 61.2%, respectively, through a meta-analysis of the training and validation queue, IPS-E is a simple and reliable prognostic model that accurately predicts the likelihood of treatment needs in early CLL patientsIPS-E is expected to be used in clinical management and early intervention clinical trial design