Global wheat market: harvest pressure is heavy, wheat prices fall

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) September soft red winter wheat futures fell 37.
75 cents from a week ago to close at 615 cents per bushel
.
The Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) September hard red winter wheat futures closed at about 594 cents per bushel, down 25.
25 cents from a week ago
.
The September hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at approximately 814.
25 cents per bushel, down 24.
5 cents from a week ago
.
Euronext's December 2021 milling wheat period reported about 199.
5 euros/ton, a decrease of 7.
25 euros or 3.
51% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was US$271/ton, down US$5 or 1.
85% from a week ago, FOB price
.
The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's wheat futures for delivery in September 2021 closed at about 2,758 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan from a week ago
.

 

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 92.
10 points, down 0.
2% from a week ago
.

 

　　According to the National Crop Progress Weekly Report issued by the US Department of Agriculture, as of July 4 (Sunday), the winter wheat harvest in the United States was 45% complete, up from 33% last week, 54% in the same period last year, and 53% in the five-year period
.
The excellent and good rate of winter wheat was 47%, lower than 48% a week ago and 51% in the same period last year
.
In addition, the continuous dry weather in spring wheat producing areas has further deteriorated the condition of spring wheat crops
.
As of July 4, the excellent and good rate of spring wheat in the United States has fallen further to 16%, a decrease of 4% from a week ago, and far lower than the 70% in the same period last year
.

 

　　U.
S.
weather forecasts show that before July 17, there will be seasonal high temperature weather in the northern half of the United States.
Rainfall in the Great Lakes region will be higher than normal, but the northern plains are still dry, which means that spring wheat crop conditions may be further improved.
Worsened
.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending July 1, 2021, the net sales of wheat delivered in the United States for the 2021/22 season (starting on June 1) were 290,800 tons, compared with 226,300 tons a week ago
.

 

　　The outlook for wheat production in the Black Sea region continues to improve as yields have recovered and the weather is good
.
This week’s consulting agency Agritel predicts that Russia’s winter wheat and spring wheat output will be 82.
3 million tons in 2021/22 (July to June of the following year), excluding the Crimea region, which is higher than the forecast in April and November last year, respectively.
It is 78.
1 million tons and 78.
3 million tons
.
Russian wheat production this year will be about 2.
5 million tons less than in 2020/21, but it is 5% higher than the five-year average
.
Analysis agency SovEcon said that Russia’s wheat export forecast for 2021/22 has been revised up by 1.
8 million tons to 38.
4 million tons
.
The reason for the increase in export forecasts is that Russia’s wheat production data has been revised up by 2.
1 million tons to 84.
6 million tons
.

 

　　Russian wheat export prices fell last week, because the market expected a high number of new wheat listings and fierce competition from supplier countries
.
According to IKAR, as of the end of last week, the Russian black sea port of New Wheat with a protein content of 12.
5% ​​was quoted at US$242 per ton.
For delivery in July, the FOB price was US$7 lower than a week ago
.
Another Moscow-based consulting firm SovEcon said that wheat prices fell by US$4.
5 in the past week to US$246 per ton
.

 

　　In the past week, Ukrainian wheat export offers fell by US$6 because of improved prospects for wheat production in the Black Sea and Europe
.
As of July 2, the FOB price of Ukrainian milled soft wheat with a protein content of 12.
5% ​​was quoted at the Black Sea port at US$230 to US$239 per ton, and the FOB price of feed wheat was US$223-232 per ton, down US$5 from a week ago
.
Ukraine is expected to produce 30 million tons of wheat this year, up from 25 million tons in the previous year
.
This week, Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture Roman Rashchenko stated that the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture will not implement grain export restrictions in the first two months of the 2021/22 fiscal year (July to June of the following year)
.
He said that Ukrainian grain exports will be determined by the Ministry of Agriculture, traders and domestic consumers on August 30
.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture will release the July supply and demand report next week
.
Analysts expect this report to show that the end of 2020/21 US wheat stocks will be 845 million cats, with a forecast range of 844 to 852 million cats, which is lower than the June forecast of 852 million cats
.
The ending stocks of U.
S.
wheat in 2021/22 are expected to be 711 million cats, with a forecast range of 5.
73 to 809 million cats, which is lower than the June forecast of 770 million cats
.
Analysts predict that global wheat ending stocks for 2020/21 will be 293.
5 million tons, the same as the June forecast
.
The global wheat ending stocks in 2021/22 are expected to be 295.
8 million tons, lower than the 296.
8 million tons predicted in June
.