【Hepatology】Increase by more than 55%! The World Health Organization released a global prediction of liver cancer diagnosis and death in 18 years

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Written by Sophia

The burden of liver cancer varies
around the world.
Liver cancer is one of the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and one of
the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries around the world.
We predict that cases and deaths will rise
over the next 20 years as the world's population grows.

Recently, researchers from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO) under the World Health Organization published the latest research results "Global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040"
in the Journal of Hepatology.
Researchers predict that new diagnoses and deaths from liver cancer could increase by 55%
globally by 2040.

style="box-sizing: border-box;" _msthash="251139" _msttexthash="381004">Research background

 01 

The global burden of liver cancer is high
.
According to 2020 estimates, liver cancer is the sixth most commonly diagnosed cancer and the third most common cause
of cancer death.

Risk factors for liver cancer include older age and sex (males have a higher risk than females), and there are some differences
in risk by ethnicity.
Due to differences in burden across populations and the availability of updated estimates, an updated assessment
of the global burden of liver cancer morbidity and mortality is warranted.
In this analysis, the researchers describe where liver cancer is located in all cancer types diagnosed and killed by cancer in countries around the world, while also projecting the future burden
of liver cancer through 2040.

Study results

 02 

The researchers extracted primary liver cancer cases and deaths from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, which includes 185 countries
.
Age-standardized morbidity and mortality (ASR)
per 100,000 person-years was calculated.
Based on morbidity and mortality in 2020 and global population projections through 2040, the researchers predicted cases and deaths
through 2040.

In 2020, an estimated 905,700 people were diagnosed with liver cancer and 830,200 died globally
.
Globally, the ASR for liver cancer was 9.
5 and 8.
7 deaths per 100,000 people, with the highest
in East Asia (17.
8 new cases, 16.
1 deaths), North Africa (15.
2 new cases, 14.
5 deaths) and South-East Asia (13.
7 new cases, 13.
2 deaths).
Liver cancer is one of the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and one of
the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries.
ASR morbidity and mortality are higher in men than in women in all regions of the world (male:female ASR ratio between 1.
2 and 3.
6).

The number of new cases of liver cancer is expected to increase by 55.
0% each year between 2020 and 2040, with 1.
4 million
people likely diagnosed by 2040.
It is estimated that 1.
3 million people will die from liver cancer by 2040 (a 56.
4% increase from 2020).

Research significance

 03 

Taken together, liver cancer cases and deaths are expected to increase by more than 50% over the next 20 years if global incidence remains constant, and will increase
unless a reduction in annual incidence of 3% or more is achieved.
If control efforts are prioritized, liver cancer caused by some major risk factors can be prevented
.
While the impact of HBV and HCV elimination efforts is only beginning to be reflected in today's liver cancer burden, the increased prevalence of other risk factors may drive changes
in liver cancer incidence in the future.

Resources:

style="white-space: normal;box-sizing: border-box;">Note: This article is intended to introduce the progress of medical research and cannot be used as a reference
for treatment options.
If you need health guidance, please go to a regular hospital
.

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